:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Nov 12 0247 UTC
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 - 11 November 2018

Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk remained
spotless. However, spots emerged late on 11 Nov near N05E13, but
remained unnumered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels on 05-09 Nov, normal to moderate levels on
10 Nov and normal to high levels on 11 Nov. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm
levels during the period due to a pair of recurrent CH HSSs. The
solar wind enviroment was enhanced on 05 Nov due to a positive
polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds peaked at 610 km/s at 05/0506 UTC and
the Bz component saw a maximum deflection of -8 nT at 05/0406 UTC.
During this timeframe, unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic
conditions were observed. 06 Nov began a downward trend to a more
nominal solar wind regime as CH HSS influence waned. Wind speeds
decreased to a low of 400 km/s at 07/0611 UTC. Quiet to isolated
active conditions were observed from 06-08 Nov. Mostly nominal
conditions continued until early on 09 Nov with arrival of a
SSBC/CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Density reached a
maximum of 18.17 particles per cubic cm at 09/1530 ahead of the CIR.
Total field reached a maximum of 14 nT at 10/0600 UTC and the Bz
component reached a maximum deflection of -8 nT at 10/0821 UTC. The
negative polarity CH HSS arrived early on 10 Nov with wind speeds
just over 600 km/s, which continued to be geoeffective through 11
Nov. Field conditions were at quiet to isolated active levels from
09-11 Nov. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
12 November - 08 December 2018

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the
forecast period (12 Nov-08 Dec). 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels 12 Nov-16 Nov due to CH HSS influence.
An extened period of normal levels is expected 18 Nov-01 Dec due to
nominal solar wind environment conditions. Mostly high levels are
likely 02-08 Dec with the return of a pair of recurrent CH HSSs. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be slightly enhanced 12
Nov-14 Nov, with a chance for isolated active levels possible, due
to a geoeffection, negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled
conditons are expected 15 Nov-30 Nov under a nominal solar wind
regime. Unsettled conditions are likely 01 Dec-08 Dec, with a chance
of a few active periods, due to a pair of recurrent CH HSSs.