:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Jul 15 0223 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 - 14 July 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the reporting
period. Region 2744 (S27, Lo=209, class/area=Bxo/020 on 07 Jul)
decayed to played by 08 Jul. A coronal dimming was observed in
SDO/AIA 193 beginning around 14/0030 UTC from near the vicinity of
old Region 2744 (S27W46). A subsequent CME signature associated with
the event was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at
14//0236 UTC. The slow-moving, narrow and faint signature from the
SW limb was modeled and the resulting WSA-Enlil output suggested no
Earth-directed component was present. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal background levels on 08-09 Jul. An increase to moderate to
high levels, in response to activity from a negative polarity CH
HSS, was observed on 10 Jul and persisted through 14 Jul. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels. An abrupt enhancement from a possible
transient was observed at 08/1829 UTC. Total field increase from 4
to 10 nT and solar wind speeds increased from 300 km/s to a brief
peak of 400 km/s resulting in an isolated period of active
conditions. Late on 09 Jul, the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS
increased wind speeds to a peak of 663 km/s and total field to 13
nT. G1 storm conditions followed a period of sustained southward Bz
with values reaching as far south as -11 nT at 09/1845 UTC. A final
period of G1 storm conditions was observed early on 10 Jul as
influence from the CH HSS persisted. Quiet to unsettled levels on 11
Jul transitioned to quiet through the end of the reporting period as
the solar wind returned to nominal levels. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 July - 10 August 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the outlook
period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to range from normal background to high levels. High levels
are expected from 15-18 Jul and 06-10 Aug; moderate levels are
expected on 19-21 Jul; the remainder of the outlook period is
expected to be at normal background levels. All enhancements in
electron flux are expected due to the anticipation of multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels. Active levels are expected on 15-16 Jul and 05-06 Aug;
unsettled levels are expected on 17 Jul, 28 Jul, 04 Aug and 07 Aug;
the remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet
levels. All increases in geomagnetic activity are due to the
anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.