:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jul 22 0507 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 - 21 July 2024

Solar activity was at moderate to high levels. High levels were
observed on 16 and 17 Jul due to an X1.9/1B flare at 16/1326 UTC
from Region 3738 (S09, L=213, class/area Fkc/1140 on 14 Jul) and an
M5.0/2b flare at 17/0639 UTC from Region 3743 (S08, L=162,
class/area Dai/220 on 13 Jul). The X1 flare had accompanying Type II
(398 km/s) and Type IV radio bursts, a Castelli U radio signature,
as well as a CME of the W limb that was not Earth-directed. Region
3753 (N12, L=170, class/area Dai/100 on 16 Jul) and 3744 (N16,
L=144, class/area Dso/180 on 12 Jul) produced a pair of M1 flares at
16/2124 UTC and 16/2206 UTC. Two associated partial halo CMEs were
observed after 16/2312 UTC. Modelling of the pair indicated an
arrival beginning at midday on 20 Jul followed by a secondary
arrival early on 21 Jul. At 21/1610 UTC, a disappearing solar
filament was observed in the vicinity of Region 3757 (N18, L=061,
class/area Hax/060 on 17 Jul). An associated halo CME was observed
at 21/1648 UTC. Initial analysis indicated an arrival on 24 Jul.
Further analysis is in progress at the time of this writing. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels.
Weak transient activity was evident on 15-16 Jul and possibly 19-20
Jul, however weak solar wind speeds in the 300-400 km/s range as
well as a predominant northward Bz component led to only isolated
unsettled periods on 15-16 Jul. Quiet conditions prevailed through
21 Jul. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 July - 17 August 2024

Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate levels with
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) levels likely and a slight
chance for X-class (R3, Strong) through 27 Jul as Regions 3751 (S08,
L=092, class/area Ekc/410 on 19 Jul) and 3761 (S10, L=081,
class/area Dki/300 on 21 Jul) rotate across the visible disk. Low to
moderate levels are likely from 28 Jul through 17 Aug. 

There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
exceeding the S1 (Minor) levels through 29 Jul due to the flare
potential of Regions 3751 and 3761. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to continue at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels
through 17 Aug barring any inbound CME activity. A potential for
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels is likely for 24 Jul due to the
arrival of the 21 Jul CME, however analysis is still in progress.