:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2024 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
12/1743Z from Region 3922 (S18E34). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec,
15 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 12/0222Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/0440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/2348Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1175 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Dec, 14 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (15 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 161
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 200

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/20