:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2025 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar,
23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 19/2126Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 20/0354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/2124Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 584 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Mar) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 170
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 170/165/155
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 189

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  006/005-010/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/50/50