:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2024 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
30/1017Z from Region 3876 (S05W33). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01
Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 632 km/s at 30/1509Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 30/0722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0751Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 74 pfu at 29/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 194 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov). Protons are expected to cross
threshold on day one (31 Oct), are expected to cross threshold on day
two (01 Nov) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (02
Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     99/75/40
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 270
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 270/270/260
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 222

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/25