:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2022 Apr 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 28-Apr 30 2022 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 28-Apr 30 2022

            Apr 28     Apr 29     Apr 30
00-03UT      3.33       3.00       4.00    
03-06UT      3.33       3.67       3.00     
06-09UT      3.67       5.33 (G1)  2.33     
09-12UT      2.00       4.00       2.33     
12-15UT      2.67       3.00       2.00     
15-18UT      2.67       2.67       2.33     
18-21UT      2.00       2.67       2.67     
21-00UT      2.00       3.00       2.33     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 29 Apr due to CH
HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2022

              Apr 28  Apr 29  Apr 30
S1 or greater   10%     10%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation
storms 28-29 Apr.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 28-Apr 30 2022

              Apr 28        Apr 29        Apr 30
R1-R2           25%           20%           15%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance of R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
28 Apr and slight chance 29-30 Apr.