:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels with isolated C-class flaring.
Regions 4381 (N0830, Eao/beta) and 4384 (N10E53, Eho/beta) remained the
primary drivers of activity. The largest event of the period was a C2.9
flare from Region 4381 at 03/0030 UTC. Region 4384 continues to rotate
further onto the disk, but foreshortening still hinders a definitive
characterization of its magnetic complexity. Region 4378 (N15W07,
Cho/beta) showed some new flux emergence but remained mostly inactive.
Region 4383 (N15W41, Axx/alpha) simplified into a unipolar group
following the loss of its trailing spots, while Region 4380 (S21E05)
decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 06 Mar.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
7,430 pfu observed at 03/0005 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
04-06 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 06 Mar.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the onset of a positive polarity coronal
hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS). Solar wind speed increased to ~450
km/s. Total magnetic field (Bt) intensified, maintaining an average of
~10 nT. The North-South (Bz) component exhibited several southward
deflections, including two sustained southward orientations late in the
period where it reached a maximum deviation of -10 nT. The Phi angle
remained predominantly in a positive (away from the Sun) orientation,
except for those two periods of sustained -Bz.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 04 Mar due to
the ongoing influence of the positive polarity coronal hole high-speed
stream (+CH HSS). Residual enhancements are likely to persist on 05 Mar,
keeping conditions slightly above background levels, before another
enhancement is expected on 06 Mar with the onset of a negative polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS).


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until the very
end of the reporting period, when G1 (Minor) storming conditions were
reached.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on
04 Mar under +CH HSS influences, with a chance for an isolated period of
G1 (Minor) storming levels. Mostly unsettled levels are likely on 05 Mar
as the current streams influence wanes. A return to active and G1
(Minor) storming levels is likely on 06 Mar due to the onset of the
negative polarity CH HSS.