:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Mar 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4380 (S21E49, Cao/beta)
produced a C6.4 flare at 28/0313 UTC, the strongest of the period.
Region 4381 (N07E69, Dao/beta) produced most of the C-flare activity
observed this period as the region continued to rotate into view from
the east limb. Region 4379 (S17, L=204) decayed to plage while the
remaining regions were stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 03 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
7,140 pfu observed at 28/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate
levels on 01-02 Mar, before increasing to high levels on 03 Mar. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels through 03 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected little change over the past 24 hours,
with residual influence of a negative polarity CH HSS still in place.
Solar wind speeds were between 400-480 km/s, total magnetic field
averaged near 4 nT, and the Bz component was variable between +/-4 nT.
The Phi angle remained predominantly in a negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely through 03 Mar due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb, followed by
the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 01-02 Mar,
with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME from 25 Feb, followed by the onset of
positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on 03 Mar under ongoing positive polarity CH HSS influences.