:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Sep 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. From 13/1841-1951 UTC, an 8
degree-long, N-S oriented filament, centered near S04W08, lifted off the
disk. The eruption occurred to the west of Region 4528 (S11W31,
Hsx/alpha), and was associated with a long-duration C1.4 flare at
13/1945 UTC. An associated CME first became visible in LASCO C2 at
approximately 13/1948 UTC and in CCOR2 at approximately 13/2030 UTC.
Modeling suggests the potential for a minor glancing blow early on 17
Sep.

B-class flares were also observed from Regions 4521 (N09, L=266), 4529
(N12W32, Cao/beta) and 4530 (N19W63, Cao/beta). The largest flare
observed was a B9.2 at 13/1801 UTC from Region 4529. Region 4525
(N11W52, Bxo/beta) displayed some intermediate spot development, while
Region 4527 (N04W48, Bxo/beta) showed some leader spot enhancements.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with C-class
flares likely and a slight chance of isolated low-level M-class flares
(R1-Minor) through 16 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 3,370 pfu observed at 13/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
14 Sep and decline to low to moderate levels on 15-16 Sep. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained near-background levels. Total field
strength varied between 2-7 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +4
to -6 nT, and solar wind speed ranged between 314 - 455 km/s through the
period. The phi angle was in a mostly positive orientation with a few
extended oscillations into a negative position.

.Forecast...
Negative CH HSS effects are anticipated to begin early on 14 Sep and
last through 16 Sep.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an
isolated active period possible on 13 Sep as +CH HSS influence is
expected to continue. Late on 13 Sep, an anticipated SSBC ahead of a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream is anticipated to begin
influencing the IMF, bringing unsettled to active levels, with a chance
for an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming on 14-15 Sep.