:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 4513 (N04E32,
Eai/beta-gamma) produced multiple C-flares, the largest being a C4.1/Sf
at 23/0653 UTC, and remained stable throughout the period. Region 4517
(N10E18, Cao/beta) exhibited minor growth, while Regions 4508 (N08,
L=166) and 4511 (S09, L=148) decayed to plage.

Other activity included an area of coronal dimming near S20E04 at
22/2030 UTC, but no associated CME was detected in coronagraph imagery.
At around 22/0030 UTC, a filament lifted off near N40E45, and produced a
narrow CME that is well north of the Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed
CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-flare
(R3/Strong or greater) over 23-25 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated, ranging from 2-5 pfu
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
23-25 Aug. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels on 23 Aug, and a slight chance on 24-25 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment remained at background levels. Total magnetic
field strength ranged between 3-6 nT, and the Bz component varied +/-4
nT. Solar wind speeds were steady between 400-460 km/s throughout the
period. The phi angle was predominately negative.

.Forecast...
Background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 23-25 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels under an ambient solar wind
environment.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels
over 23-25 Aug.