:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Nov 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with a majority of the activity at C1
or less through about 13/1800 UTC. At 13/1821 UTC, a C5.5 x-ray event
was observed off the NE limb from an unnumbered region. New Regions 4576
(S18W25, Bxo/beta), 4577 (S07E18, Cro/beta), and 4578 (S12W21, Cro/beta)
were numbered.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 14-16 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 5,223 pfu observed at 13/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
over 14 Nov. A return to moderate levels is likely on 15-16 Nov. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background
levels on 14-16 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to decline over the period. Total field
ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +5 to -3 nT. Solar
wind speed decreased from 508 km/s to near 380 km/s. Phi angle was
variable.

.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on 14-15 Nov. A gradual
increase in solar wind parameters is expected on 16 Nov due to an SSBC
in advance of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14-15 Nov, with an increase of
of unsettled to isolated active periods on 16 Nov.