:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 20 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Newly numbered Region 4513
(N03E81, Dao/beta) produced an M1.0 (R1-Minor) flare at 19/1717 UTC as
it was rotating around the E. limb. The remaining spotted regions on the
visible disk were mostly stable or in gradual decay.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels over 20-22 Aug,
with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
There is a chance the greater than 2 MeV electron flux reaches high
levels over 20 Aug, with high levels likely on 21-22 Aug due to CH HSS
influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels through 22 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected continued influence of a negative
polarity coronal hole HSS. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 2-9
nT. The Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT.
Solar wind speeds were between 530-630 km/s, and phi angle was
predominantly oriented in the negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue reflecting waning influence
of a negative polarity coronal hole through 22 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels over 20-22 during
the waning phase of the CH HSS.