:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4417 (S08W88, Dao/beta)
produced most of the X-ray activity, with the strongest being a C2.4
flare at 12/0738 UTC as it rotated near the W limb. Only minor changes
were observed in the other two numbered active regions on the visible
disk: Region 4415 (S18E18, Cso/beta) developed leading spots becoming a
bipolar group and Region 4416 (N19W11, Dai/beta) showed growth and
consolidation in both its leading and trailing spots. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) over 13-15 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels with a peak flux
of 1,609 pfu at 12/1810 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels
likely on 13-15 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected continued influence from a positive
polarity coronal hole. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 3-6
nT and Bz reached as far south as -4 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily
declined from ~575 km/s to as low as ~450 km/s by the end of the UT day.
Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 13-15 Apr due
to continued +CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
13-14 Apr, with active conditions likely on 15 Apr, under continued +CH
HSS influences.