:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C5.2 at 16/2135 UTC from an area around the SE limb. Region 4490
(N15E17, Bxo/beta) decayed nearly to plage while the remaining three
regions were largely stable throughout the period. 

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to reach low levels on 17-19 Jul, with a
chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of
1,550 pfu at 16/2050 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 
on 17-19 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist
at background levels through 19 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at predominantly nominal levels. Total
magnetic field strength averaged 5 nT, while the Bz component ranged
between +2/-6 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased throughout the
period, beginning at approximately 460 km/s and finishing around 400
km/s. The phi angle was mostly positive throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to be slightly enhanced over the
remainder of 17 Jul and into 18 Jul with positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Background conditions are likely to prevail on 19 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet and unsettled levels on
17-18 Jul under weak positive polarity CH HSS influences. Mostly quiet
conditions are likely to prevail on 19 Jul.