:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Oct 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels with the largest flare, a C3.3/Sf
at 23/0542 UTC from Region 4560 (N13W51, Eai/beta-gamma). The only other
active on the visible solar disk is Region 4557 (N07W75, Cao/beta), who
was responsible for few C-class flares, including a C1.3 at 23/0355 UTC
associated with an eruption observed first by GOES-19/SUVI and later by
the operational coronagraphs (first imagery from LASCO/C2 at 23/0428
UTC). Preliminary analysis indicate that the trajectory of this CME will
not intercept the Geospace.

No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 25 Oct, with
a slight chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate),
mostly due to the flare potential of Region 4560.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 23/1140 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching
high levels on 23-25 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
anticipated to persist at background levels through 25 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected diminishing positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) was about 5 nT with a
north-south (Bz) component oscillating between -/+ 6 nT during the
period. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from 450 km/s level to about
400 km/s late in the period. The phi angle remained predominantly in the
positive sector (away from the Sun).

.Forecast...
Undisturbed solar wind conditions are expected early 24 Oct with
enhancements returning on 25 Oct due to the combined influences of a
negative polarity CH HSS and possible glancing CME effects from the 21
Oct eruptions.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity decreased from active to quiet levels during
the past 24h.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 23 Oct as CH HSS
influences wane, transitioning to mostly quiet levels on 24 Oct. A
return to active levels, with a chance for geomagnetic storming, is
anticipated on 25 Oct due to low-confidence combined effects from a
recently emerged negative polarity coronal hole and potential glancing
CME impacts.