:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Oct 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 4546 (S19W74,
Hrx/alpha) produced the strongest flare of the period, a B9.3/Sf flare,
at 04/0630 UTC. The remaining numbered spotted regions remained quiet
and mostly unchanged.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for
C-flares through 07 Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 05 Oct, returning to high levels on 06-07 Oct. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels through 07 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at enhanced levels due to the continued
influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength
increased to a peak of 22 nT and Bz observed several southward
deflections, the maximum being -20 nT at 04/0611 UTC. Solar wind speeds
steadily increased from ~300 km/s to a peak of ~644 km/s at 04/1807 UTC.
Phi angle was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue through late on
05 Oct as influence from the +CH HSS are expected to persist. Conditions
are anticipated to diminish over 06-07 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels.

.Forecast...
Active to G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected early on 05 Oct due to
continued influence of a +CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are then
expected by mid to late day on 05 Oct, likely lasting into 06 Oct as +CH
HSS influence fades.