:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Feb 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low to low levels: the only flare of note was
C1.1 flare at 17/1848 from an unnumbered plage region near S05E85.
Slight growth was observed in Region 4374 (N09W31, Dsi/beta), and Region
4376 (N13, L=14) decayed to plage. The rest of the spot groups were
relatively stable.

Eruption signatures were seen in GOES/SUVI 304 and 284 at ~17/1130 UTC
and a subsequent, very slow, CME was seen in LASCO coronagraph imagery.
Analysis indicates there is no Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 20 Feb.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of
2,210 pfu at 17/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
through 20 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels through 20 Feb.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced under waning positive polarity CH
HSS influences. Solar wind speed decreased from ~675 km/s to ~550 km/s
by the end of the reporting period. Total magnetic field (Bt) averaged 5
nT while the Bz (north-south) component varied between +/-5 nT. Phi
angle was predominantly positive (away from the Sun).

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 20 Feb
due to continued but weakening CH HSS influences. Weak influences from
the 16 Feb CME are possible on 19 Feb.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels in response to
positive polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active periods are expected, with a chance for G1 (Minor)
storming, on 18-19 Feb due as HSS activity persists and wanes, with
possible glancing influences from the 16 Feb CME arriving late on 19
Feb. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 20 Feb as HSS
conditions wane to background levels.