:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Jul 05 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at high levels with twelve M-class (R1-Minor) flares and one X-class (R3-Strong) flare observed during the period. The largest flare was an X1.3 observed at 04/2041 UTC from newly numbered Region 4482 (S08E69, Hsx/alpha) near the SE limb. This flare had an associated Type II radio sweep (est 2,714 km/s) and a Tenflare radio burst reaching 890 sfu. An associated CME was first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at ~04/2100 UTC moving off the ESE limb. Analysis indicated a trajectory behind Earths orbit with no impacts at Earth expected. This region also contributed a C8.5 flare at 04/1438 UTC. Region 4479 (N16W82, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) again maintained its spot as the top flare producer, adding ten M-class and multiple mid to upper level C-class flares. Foreshortening is now inhibiting accurate magnetic structure analysis, but with the continued high flare activity, it is presumed to still contain at least one delta configuration as it transits the western limb. Region 4478 (S05W67, Eko/beta-gamma) produced a single M1.5 event at 04/1936 UTC, but was otherwise mostly inactive. The region continued to show decay, mostly in its trailing portion. Region 4480 (S17W87, Cao/beta) added a single flare during the period; an M1.3/Sf flare at 05/0432 UTC. Region 4381 (N14E40, Axx/alpha) and newly numbered Region 4483 (S06W22, Bxo/beta) both were inactive throughout the period. Several CMEs were noted in LASCO coronagraph imagery throughout the period, but none are expected to have an Earth-directed component. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong), through 05 Jul. As Regions 4479 and 4480 rotate around the west limb by 06 Jul, activity is expected to begin decreasing, but moderate levels are likely to persist until these regions rotate another day beyond the limb. Activity should decrease to a slight chance for (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) levels on 07 Jul as these regions complete their transit of the limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate to high levels on 05-07 Jul. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) on 05-06 Jul due to the recent and potential flare activity of Regions 4478 and 4479. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters began the period enhanced following the likely arrival of the 30 Jun CME. Total field strength (Bt) reached a maximum of 19 nT, the Bz component had only minor southward deviations, and solar wind speeds were over 650 km/s. Phi was in a mostly negative orientation. Conditions slowly decreased as CME effects began to diminish. Total field settled in around 5 nT, Bz turned southward after 05/0600 UTC, reaching as far south as -5 nT, and wind speeds declined to end the period near 490 km/s. The phi angle was mostly negative, with a brief period of oscillating between sectors from 05/0000 UTC to 05/0600 UTC, before returning to a mostly negative orientation. .Forecast... Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are likely to persist through the remainder of 05 Jul. Possible influence from +CH72, combined with additional CME activity from 01-02 Jul events, are anticipated later on 05 Jul, before eventually tapering off throughout 06 Jul. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 07 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity began the period with G2 (Moderate) conditions, but has steadily decreased to end the period at active levels. .Forecast... Influence from the 01-02 Jul CME arrival is anticipated on 05-06 Jul, coupled with possible influence from +CH72. Active levels are expected, with G1 (Minor) levels likely, on 05-06 Jul, with an isolated period of G2 (Moderate) possible. Barring additional CME activity, 06 Jul is likely to see lessened activity as influences wane, becoming mostly quiet to unsettled on 07 Jul.