:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jul 13 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 4140 (S14E54, Cao/beta)
produced the vast majority of the flare activity, including an M1.6/1f
flare (R1-Minor radio blackout), the largest of the period, at 12/1210
UTC. Regions 4137 (N19W66, Dso/beta), 4139 (N22E03, Dai/beta), and newly
numbered 4141 (S13W76, Cao/beta) all exhibited growth, while the
remaining regions were mostly stable or showed slight decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels, with a slight chance for isolated X-class (R3-Strong) events
over 13-15 Jul.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels, and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 13-15 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels through 15 Jul.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect increasing positive polarity
CH HSS influence. Total magnetic field strength reached 14 nT early in
the period before decreasing slightly to end the period near 7 nT. The
Bz component briefly reached as far south as -10 nT, and solar wind
speeds steadily increased to a peak near 725 km/s. The phi angle
remained positive throughout most of the period.

.Forecast...
Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to persist over 13-15 Jul
due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to positive
polarity CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 13 Jul, with
a chance for G1 (Minor) storming, followed by quiet to unsettled levels
on 14-15 Jul due to continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS.