:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Nov 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels with two C-class flares in the past
24h: a C1.2 at 04/0654 UTC from Region 4566 (S06E40,
Fai/beta-gamma-delta), and a C2.2 from a region beyond the SE limb. The
background X-ray level raised during the period as the active regions on
disk showed growth and a new region emerged and was numbered: Region
4567 (N17W41, Cro/beta). The other two regions on disk, 4564 (N03W14,
Dro/beta) and 4565 (N15E08 Dsi/beta), gained trail spots and magnetic
complexity during the period.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
M-class flares and a slight chance for X-class events on 05-07 Nov,
mostly due to Regions 4565 and 4566 configuration and development.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux showed a sharp decrease at the
beginning of the day, reflecting the stretched magnetotail, returning to
high levels after 04/1410 UTC (the peak flux of 1,737 pfu occurred at
04/0040 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching
high levels on 05 Nov, returning to moderate levels on 06-07 Nov. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels through 07 Nov.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a mild disturbance likely associated
with a high speed stream (HSS) from a small positive coronal hole (+CH)
in the NW quadrant that was detected few days ago an is no longer
identifiable in the EUV imagery. Solar wind speeds were elevated from
375 km/s level up to 425 km/s, while a slight increase in temperature
with a simultaneous decrease in densities were observed. Total
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength oscillated around 7 nT and
the Bz (north-south) component was mostly negative. Bz remained under -5
nT for a sustained period of 45 min around 04/0400 UTC, reaching as
negative as -8 nT at 04/0424 UTC. Phi angle remained mostly in the
positive sector (away from the Sun) in the past 24h.

.Forecast...
The solar wind near-Earth is expected to remain mildly disturbed on 05
Nov, as the geoeffective weak +CH/HSS wanes and a possible glancing blow
influence of 01 Nov CME begins. Additional solar wind disturbances are
likely on 06-07 Nov when a -CH/HSS is anticipated to impact the
Geospace.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic activity has been quiet to unsettled for the past 24h.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active
conditions on 05 Nov as the currently geoeffective weak +CH/HSS wanes
and a possible glancing blow influence of 01 Nov CME occurs. Minor
storming (G1) levels are likely on 06-07 Nov (with a slight chance for
Moderate Storms - G2 - on 07 Nov), due to the anticipated influences of
a negative polarity CH/HSS.