:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 May 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 4420 (N16W83, Cao/beta) produced an
impulsive C7.4/Sf flare at 01/1529 UTC, with associated Type-II radio
sweep (est. 593 km/s), as it approached the west limb. Minor growth was
observed in Regions 4424 (N17W49,  Eai/beta), 4428 (S23W27, Dai/beta),
4429 (S04E20, Dso/beta), and newly-numbered 4431 (S16E53, Dao/beta). New
Regions 4430 (N16W31, Dao/beta) and 4432 (N11E68, Bxo/beta) were also
numbered, but were otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for
M-flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 02-04 May.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 02-04 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels through 04 May.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were consistent with ongoing negative polarity CH
HSS influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 9 nT, and the Bz
component reached as far south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds slowly
decreased from a peak of around 525 km/s to an average of around 450
km/s by the end of the period.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under negative
polarity CH HSS influences over 02-04 May.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels this period in
response to negative polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 02 and 04
May, with active conditions likely on 03 May, due to continued negative
polarity CH HSS influences.