:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3638 (S17W74, Cai/beta)
produced the strongest flare of the period, an M2.0 flare (R1-Minor) at
24/2259 UTC. AR 3638 also produced a C9.4 flare at 24/1410 that had
associated Type IV and Type II radio sweeps (est. 800 km/s initially
reported, but revised down to 379 km/s in the final report) as well as a
faint CME off the SW in C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 24/1436 UTC.
Analysis and modeling of the event determined the CME to be ahead and
south of Earths orbit.

Newly numbered Region 3658 (S21W32, Box/beta) was relatively quiet.
Growth was observed in Region 3648 (N18W38, Dai/beta-gamma) and 3654
(S08E25, Eac/beta). The remaining 14 spotted active regions on the
visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay.

 
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate over the next three days,
with M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) expected, and a slight chance
for an X-class flare (R3/Strong).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was peaked near high levels but
remained moderate, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels over 24-26 Apr due to the flare potential and
location of several active regions on the visible disk. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux is forecast to continue at normal to moderate levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind conditions reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field
strength was at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between
~350-400 km/s. Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive between
24/0615-1530 UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected over 25-27 Apr due to CH HSS
influences and possibly multiple transients that are suspected to pass
by in the vicinity of Earth over the next few days.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to range from quiet to active
levels on 25-27 Apr due to the anticipated influence of CH HSS activity
combined with potential transient influence from the edge of pass CMEs
in the vicinity of Earth. A chance for minor (G1) or greater geomagnetic
storms exists over 25-26 Apr should these features carry periods of
significant southward Bz.