:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Sep 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity continued at high levels. There are 10 numbered regions on the disk with several M-class flares. Of most significance during the period was an M1.0/1n flare that peaked at 10/2350 UTC from Region 3814 (N15W16, Dhi/beta-gamma-delta). Possibly associated with this flare was a CME first observed in STEREO A COR 2 imagery at 11/0223 UTC off to the NE. Analysis and modeling efforts for this event resulted in a possible arrival during the first half of the 14 Sep UT day. Region 3811 (S13W87, Dso/beta) continued to show growth as it produced M-class activity. Growth was observed in Regions 3814, 3822 (N14W05, Dai/beta), and newly numbered 3823 (S19W65, Dri/beta). New spots emerged in the SE quadrant and were numbered as Region 3824 (S04E31, Dro/beta). An additional significant note: There is a scheduled gap in LASCO coronagraph imagery today. The last image available is from 11/1236 UTC. The next updated images will be between 12/0345-12/0545 UTC. Also, the last image from STEREO was at 11/1438 UTC. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3-Strong) on 12-14 Sep. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued to trend towards background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 14 Sep. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor) threshold on 12-14 Sep. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced in the latter half of the period due to transient influence. Total field reached 10 nT while the Bz component became sustained southward at -5 nT. Solar wind speeds remained below 400 km/s. Phi rotated through sectors after 11/0900 UTC. .Forecast... Enhanced conditions are expected late on 12 Sep into 13 Sep due to the arrival of the 10 Sep CME. An additional enhancement is likely on 14 Sep with the possible arrival of the 11 Sep CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely by late on 12 Sep due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 10 Sep. G2 (Moderate) storm levels are likely on 13 Sep as the bulk of the CME passes through. G1-G2 levels are possible again on 14 Sep with the arrival of the 11 Sep CME.