:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 4550 (S15W22, Bxo/beta) emerged, was subsequently numbered, but remained relatively quiet. Region 4549 (N10W13, Dai/beta-gamma-delta) underwent consolidation in both its leading and trailing spots while maintaining multiple areas of mixed polarities inhabiting the same penumbra. AR 4549 continued to be responsible for the majority of activity to include a C7.9 flare at 07/1317 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. A partial halo CME associated with the aforementioned C7.9 flare was first observed in STEREO-A coronagraph imagery beginning at approximately 07/1338 UTC. Initial modeling of this event indicated the presence of an Earth-directed component with an arrival at Earth early on the 11 Oct UTC-day. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a strong chance (40%) for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) through 10 Oct, particularly from Region 4549. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 11,900 pfu at 07/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high levels through 09 Oct. Normal to moderate levels are anticipated for 10 Oct post CME arrival. There is a slight chance (10%) for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold through 10 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters largely reflected ambient-like conditions. Total field was below 5 nT and the Bz components most significant southward deflection was -4 nT. Solar wind speeds continued to decline, ending the period near 370 km/s. Phi was predominantly oriented in a positive solar sector. .Forecast... Ambient-like conditions are expected to persist through 08 Oct. A disturbed and enhanced environment is likely by early on 09 Oct due to CME influences from an event that left the Sun on 06 Oct. CME influences are anticipated to give way to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream regime on 10 Oct, continuing the trend of an enhanced solar wind environment. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at largely quiet levels with possible isolated unsettled periods through 08 Oct. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 09 Oct with the arrival of the aforementioned 06 Oct CME events. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to then persist into and through 10 Oct are a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.