:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Feb 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. C1.0 flaring occurred as a
result of a filament eruption and activity from an unnumbered region
just beyond the SE limb near S09. Slight growth was observed in Region
4374 (N09W31, Csi/beta). The rest of the spot groups were relatively
stable.

Starting around 16/1230 UTC, a filament just south of center-disk
erupted, centered near S20E08. The associated CME, first visible in
LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1348 UTC off the NE limb, was very faint with a
substantial northward deflection due to the coronal hole located south
of the eruption. Analysis suggests a potential minor glancing blow on 19
Feb.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 19 Feb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of
1,520 pfu at 16/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
17-19 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
at background levels through 19 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Solar wind speed initially increased from approximately 600
km/s to a peak of 719 km/s at 16/1919 UTC followed by a gradual decrease
to near 575 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-8 nT while the Bz component
was between +/-7 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through 19 Feb
due to continued but weakening CH HSS influences. Weak influences from
the 16 Feb CME are possible late on 19 Feb.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated G2
(Moderate) storm level observed during the 16/1800-2100 UTC period in
response to positive polarity CH HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active periods are expected, with a chance for G1 (Minor)
storming, on 17 Feb due as HSS activity persists. Unsettled to active
conditions are likely on 18-19 Feb as HSS conditions wane with possible
glancing influences from the 16 Feb CME arriving late on 19 Feb.