:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2020 Jan 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. An area
of enhanced plage emerged on the disk near N17E37. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 19-21 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on 19-20 Jan. High levels are likely on 21 Jan due to
CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed
varying between between 310-350 km/s. A slight enhancement to about 365
km/s was observed after 19/0713 UTC. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT
while the Bz component varied between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was variable
throughout the period between positive and negative sectors.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to become weakly enhanced on 19 Jan due
to the arrival of the 14 Jan CME. A further enhancement is expected on
20-21 Jan with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Midday to late on 19 Jan, unsettled conditions are likely due to the
arrival of the 14 Jan CME. By 20 Jan, unsettled to active levels are
expected with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to
active conditions are expected to persist through 21 Jan.