:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Feb 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels. Region 4380 (S22E58,
Dao/beta-gamma) remained the most magnetically complex region and
increased in overall area, but was limited in flare activity. This
region did produce the largest flare of the period; a C6.4 flare at
28/0313 UTC, but was mostly quiet otherwise. Region 4378 (N17E40,
Eho/beta) became the most active region on the disk, producing at least
five low-level C-class flares. Region 4381 (N07E70, Hsx/alpha) added a
couple of C-class flares as it continued to move onto the visible disk.
Region 4379 (S17E45, Cao/beta) exhibited decay and was inactive.

Weak dimming was noted in GOES-19 SUVI/195 imagery near N28E11, starting
around 28/0756 UTC. A likely associated CME was observed in
GOES-19/CCOR-1 imagery starting at approximately 28/0800 UTC. Analysis
is in progress, but due to its source location and trajectory, impacts
at Earth are not expected.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for
isolated M-class activity (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 02 Mar.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the day, with a peak of 11,786 pfu at 27/1535 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at high
levels on 28 Feb before returning to normal to moderate levels on 01
Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels through 01 Mar.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected litttle change over the past 24 hours,
with residual influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed
stream (-CH HSS) still in place. Solar wind speeds were between 400-450
km/s, total magnetic field averaged near 4 nT, and the Bz component was
variable between +/- 4 nT. The Phi angle remained predominantly in a
negative orientation.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely late on 28 Feb through 02 Mar
due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 25 Feb,
followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels through 28 Mar. Active conditions are expected on 01-02 Mar, with
a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming periods, due to the
anticipated arrival of a CME from 25 Feb, followed by the onset of
positive polarity CH HSS influences.