:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was a
C6.3 flare from an area around the NW limb. Region 4498 (N15E04,
Dai/beta) remained the largest and most complex region on the Sun. Only
minor changes were observed in the six active regions on the visible
disk.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 02-04 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
value of 1,156 pfu at 01/1635 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was near background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to see moderate to high
levels over the next three days. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to return to background levels over the next three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued near-background levels until 02/1129 UTC
when a mild shock was observed in the IMF. Total magnetic field strength
increased from 4 nT to ~14 nT during the shock onset. Bz rotated as far
south as -8 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~290 km/s to ~350 km/s.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at enhanced levels due to
the continued influence of a transient currently observed in solar wind
data. Enhancements are likely to continue, yet weaken on 03 Aug as CME
effects persist. A return to near background levels is likely by 04 Aug
as CME effects diminish.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely after midday on 02 Aug
due to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul. Active levels,
with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, are likely to persist into 03
Aug as CME effects wane. Mostly quiet levels are expected to return by
04 Aug.