:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Oct 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. Aside from a C4.2 flare at 13/1632 UTC from departed Region 4549 (N09, L=218) from beyond the West Limb, flaring was limited to occasional low-level B-class and C-class events, primarily from Region 4551 (S15E21, Eho/beta-gamma). Six numbered sunspot regions are on the visible disk. Region 4551 remains the largest and most complex region on the disk. It exhibited minor new flux emergence in its trailing spots, along with a rapid emergence of mixed-polarity ahead of the mature leader spot (which may represent a distinct, emerging spot group, but is currently considered part of the 4551 complex). Region 4555 (S06W30, Bxo/beta) re-emerged as a simple bipolar group following earlier submergence into plage. Regions 4556 (N03E59, Bxo/beta) and 4557 (N06E57, Cro/beta) were newly numbered during the period. The remaining regions on the disk were stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 16 Oct. With the primary driver of recent activity having rotated beyond the West Limb, there is a decreased, slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels, reaching a peak flux of 329 pfu observed at 13/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 14-15 Oct following negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) influences, before returning to normal to moderate levels on 16 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to remain at background levels through 16 Oct. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS) influences, along with potential flanking CME influences early in the period. Early density increases coincided with total magnetic field strength (Bt) peaking near 16 nT around 13/0027 UTC before settling into a 6 to 12 nT range. The Bz component fluctuated, reaching an early northward peak before turning to -5 to -8 nT during brief southward deviations. Solar wind speeds steadily increased throughout the period, rising from 470 km/s to near 650 km/s late in the period. The phi angle remained predominantly negative (towards the Sun). .Forecast... Negative polarity CH HSS effects are anticipated to persist through 14 Oct before subsiding early on 15 Oct. Additional brief enhancements remain possible on 14 Oct due to potential influence from filaments that erupted on 12 Oct. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled under -CH HSS influences. .Forecast... Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 14 Oct, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 15 and 16 Oct as HSS influences wane.