:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jun 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels, with the largest flare of the
period being a C1.5 at 22/0456 UTC from just behind the SE limb. Due to
decreased foreshortening effects, old Region 4473 was deemed to be two
separate groups and was split: Region 4473 (S09E40, Dai/beta-gamma), the
western-most group that produced the M6.8 at 21/1929 UTC, and Region
4475 (S09E51, Cao/beta-gamma), the eastern-most group. Regions 4472
(S14E28, Dao/beta)exhibited minor growth.

Several eruptions were seen over 20-21 Jun associated with activity from
Regions 4472 and 4473, such as the M6.8. Analysis of the coronagraph
imagery suggests each eruption is quite slow (~250 km/s or less);
however modeling of them all together indicates that they may interact
with each other and an anticipated CIR, resulting in possible minor
glancing blows to Earth late on 24 Jun and potentially 28 Jun.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at predominately low levels on
23-25 Jun, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares due
primarily to the flare potential of Region 4473 and a region seen in
Solar Orbiter data about to rotate onto the eastern limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels over 23-25 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels through 24 Jun.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period, with total
magnetic field strength (Bt) at or below 6 nT, no significant periods of
southward Bz, phi largely positive, and solar wind speeds averaging 350
km/s. At 22/1815 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing produced a bump
in Bt, peaking at 7 nT, but no appreciable change in other solar wind
parameters.

.Forecast...
Background solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 23 Jun.
Enhanced conditions are expected 24-25 Jun due to the anticipated onset
of negative polarity CH HSS influences and a potential minor glancing
blow from a CME that left the Sun on 20 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels
through 23 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely 24-25 Jun due to
the anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS and glancing blow
influences.