:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2025 Jan 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 3959 (N18W33, Cko/beta)
produced a C8.2 flare at 19/1708 UTC, which was the largest event of the
period. Region 3961 (S09W09, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced low level C-class
flare activity while continuing to exhibit signs of decay in its
intermediate spots. Regions 3964 (N06W77, Eki/beta-gamma), 3965 (N14E15,
Cso/beta) and 3968 (S19W86, Cri/beta) tacked on C-class flares as well.
Region 3970 (N14E25, Cro/beta) formed rapidly, was numbered, but was
otherwise unremarkable. New, simple spots were noted developing just
northwest of AR 3967, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await
corroborating observatory reports.

Other notable activity included a disappearing filament centered near
S12E43 in GOES-16 304 imagery at approximately 20/0515 UTC. However,
there has been no indication of a subsequent CME in available
coronagraph imagery as of the time of this writing. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed.

.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or
greater events, over 20-22 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal and moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal and
moderate levels through 22 Jan with a chance for high levels on 20 Jan.
There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels over 20-22 Jan.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Negative polarity CH HSS influences prevailed. Total field strength and
solar wind speeds gradually increased over the period with the latter
reaching ~600 km/s. The Bz component underwent man southward
deflections, reaching -5 to -8 nT. Phi was predominantly negative while
undertaking excursions to a positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind conditions and negative polarity CH HSS influences
are expected to persist through 21 Jan. Background levels are expected
to return on 22 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to negative polarity CH
HSS influences.

.Forecast...
Periods of active conditions are expected on 20 Jan and will likely
continue through 21 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 22 Jan.