:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Oct 02 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels the past 24h. Newly numbered Region
4545 (N20E61, Bxo/beta) produced a C1.4 flare at 01/2137 UTC, which was
the largest event of the period. The remaining two active regions on the
visible disk showed some decay during the period: Region 4544 (S09W43,
Axx/alpha) and Region 4535 (N11W72, Dso/beta).

No Earth-directed CME was observed in the coronagraph imagery. 

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at very low levels with a chance for
C-flares and a slight chance for an M-flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
through 04 Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak of
2,550 pfu at 01/1645 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
02 Oct, before decreasing to moderate levels on 03-04 Oct. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels
through 04 Oct.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected ambient conditions with a speed between
270-300 km/s and total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength
below 6 nT. The IMF vector components oscillated between -/+ 6 nT in
response to multiple sector crossings in the past 24h, and Bz remained
predominantly positive.

.Forecast...
Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through midday on
02 Oct, when disturbances caused by flanking influences from a CME
that left the Sun on 28 Sep are likely to be observed. On 03-04 Oct,
solar wind enhancements are likely to persist as CME effects wane and
positive polarity CH HSS influences continue.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field remained quiet during the past 24h.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet levels
through midday on 02 Oct, when G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely
following the anticipated arrival of the 28 Sep CME. Periods of active
conditions are likely on 03 Oct as CME impacts wane and positive CH HSS
influences begin late in the day. Periods of G1 storming are likely
again on 04 Oct due to sustained CH HSS influences.