:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Aug 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. New spots formed ahead of AR 4506
and were subsequently numbered as Region 4510 (N12W14, Bxo/beta).
Region 4509 (N11W61, Dao/beta) had rapid flux emergence and
consolidation.  The remaining active regions were either largely stable
or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Isolated C-class flares, with a slight chance (10%) for R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, are likely through 16 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at low to
moderate levels 14 Aug and 16 Aug, while reach high levels on 15
Aug under positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (+CH HSS)
influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels through 16 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient-like environment. Total field
was generally below 5 nT, until approximately 13/1500 UTC, when it began
a very gradual rise, ending the period at roughly 7 nT. The Bz component
very variable from -5 nT to 4 nT. Solar wind speeds maintained a rough
average of 400 km/s, and phi was predominantly in a positive solar
sector.

.Forecast...
Early on 14 Aug, enhancements are anticipated with the arrival of a
corotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a +CH HSS. Enhanced solar
wind conditions are likely to then persist through 16 Aug under +CH HSS
influences.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet.

.Forecast...
On 14-15 Aug, unsettled to active levels are expected in response
to +CH HSS influences with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming
or greater. 16 Aug is anticipated to return to largely unsettled levels
as CH HSS influences wane.