:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Mar 14 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4384 (N09W81, Dai/beta) produced an M1.2/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 13/0955 UTC, the strongest of the period. The region continued to show rapid growth in its intermediate and trailer spots as it approached the W limb. Decay was observed in Regions 4390 (N26W12, Bxo/beta) and 4388 (S14W71, Bxo/beta), with Region 4387 (N08, L=076) decaying fully to plage. Only minor changes were observed in the remaining spotted active regions. Other activity included a large filament eruption in the southern hemisphere. It began slowly lifting off after ~12/2100 UTC. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery contained a CME signature to the SW beginning at 13/0036 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggests the ejecta will predominantly pass below and ahead of Earths orbit. However, this is a slight chance of a minor glancing blow late on 15 Mar. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 14-15 Mar, entirely due to the flaring potential of Region 4384. The probability of M-flares decreases to a slight chance as this region moves beyond the limb on 16 Mar. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,170 pfu observed at 13/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 14 Mar, and high levels again on 15-16 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through 16 Mar. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters contained enhancements after ~13/0500 UTC, indicative of the arrival of a CIR before an anticipated CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 13 nT. Bz rotated as far south as -8 nT for an hour period around 0715 UTC, then rotated back north where it stayed for the majority of the rest of the period. Solar wind speeds increased from ~400 km/s to ~700 km/s, beginning after 13/0830 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive at 13/0854 UTC. .Forecast... Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail through 16 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. .Forecast... Periods of G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming are expected early on 14 Mar, with active conditions likely on 15-16 Mar, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences.