:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Feb 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low due to a prominence activity on the East limb
(near N10 and S20 latitudes) that started as a C1.0 flare at 24/0733 UTC
and increased the background X-ray flux up to C4.5 levels by 24/1715
UTC. The visible solar disk remained spotless during the day, with some
short-lived pore emergence in the NE and central disk plages due to
magnetic field intensification in those areas. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at low levels on 25-27 Feb,
with a slight chance for isolated M-class activity
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), as the bright regions currently seeing at the
East limb rotate into the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit remained at high
levels during the day, with a peak of 13,748 pfu at 24/1620 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels, with a
fluctuation around 24/1800 UTC caused by GOES-18 SEISS SGPS sensor
contamination from radiation belt electrons.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at moderate to
high levels on 25-27 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels through 27 Feb.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued under negative polarity CH HSS waning
influences. Solar wind speed slowly decreased from approximately 650
km/s to near 500 km/s. Total interplanetary magnetic field remained
around 4 nT during the day, with a north-south Bz component oscillating
between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions near-Earth are likely to remain disturbed by the
negative polarity CH HSS on 25-26 Feb, returning to undisturbed levels
on 27 Feb, as the HSS becomes less (or not) geoeffective.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24
hours, due to persistent negative polarity CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
25-26 Feb as negative polarity CH HSS influences wanes, reaching quiet
to unsettled levels on 27 Feb.