:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 14-Nov 16 2025

             Nov 14       Nov 15       Nov 16
00-03UT       2.00         2.33         2.00     
03-06UT       0.67         3.00         1.67     
06-09UT       1.67         2.33         1.33     
09-12UT       1.67         2.00         1.33     
12-15UT       2.67         1.33         2.00     
15-18UT       3.00         1.33         3.33     
18-21UT       3.00         2.00         4.00     
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.33         5.00 (G1)

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 14
Nov as CME effects linger. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely by
late on 16 Nov due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025

              Nov 14  Nov 15  Nov 16
S1 or greater   99%     40%     40%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storming is in
progress on 14 Nov. A chance exists for an S1 event on 15-16 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 14 2025 0830 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 14-Nov 16 2025

              Nov 14        Nov 15        Nov 16
R1-R2           70%           70%           70%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           30%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a
chance for an isolated R3 (Strong) event, through 16 Nov primarily
due to AR 4274s past flare history coupled with its current potential.