:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2026

             May 12       May 13       May 14
00-03UT       3.00         3.33         3.00     
03-06UT       2.00         3.33         3.00     
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         2.33     
09-12UT       2.67         3.00         2.00     
12-15UT       2.67         3.00         1.67     
15-18UT       2.67         2.00         2.00     
18-21UT       2.67         3.67         2.67     
21-00UT       3.67         3.33         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2026

              May 12  May 13  May 14
S1 or greater   10%      5%      5%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms on 12 May due to the potential from Region 4432.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2026

              May 12        May 13        May 14
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 14 May. A slight chance exists for an R3 (Strong) or greater
radio blackout on 12 May. All mostly due to the complexity of Regions
4432 and 4436.