:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 04-Feb 06 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 04-Feb 06 2026

             Feb 04       Feb 05       Feb 06
00-03UT       1.67         2.00         4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       1.67         2.00         4.00     
06-09UT       1.33         1.67         3.67     
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         3.67     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         3.67     
15-18UT       1.33         3.00         4.00     
18-21UT       1.33         4.33         4.00     
21-00UT       1.67         5.00 (G1)    4.00     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storming is likely on 05-06 Feb due to the arrival
of the CME associated with the 01/2357 UTC X8.1 flare from Region 4366.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 04-Feb 06 2026

              Feb 04  Feb 05  Feb 06
S1 or greater   30%     30%     30%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a chance to exceed S1
(Minor) levels over 04-06 Feb due to the high eruptive potential of
Region 4366. The risk of a proton event will increase as the region
moves into a more favorable magnetic connection point in the Suns
western hemisphere.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 03 2026 1408 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 04-Feb 06 2026

              Feb 04        Feb 05        Feb 06
R1-R2           80%           80%           80%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           40%

Rationale: Moderate to high solar activity is expected due to M-class
flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the next three days with a high
chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to expected further
activity from AR 4366.