:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Aug 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 12-Aug 14 2023 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 12-Aug 14 2023

             Aug 12       Aug 13       Aug 14
00-03UT       1.67         1.33         1.67     
03-06UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
09-12UT       1.00         1.33         2.00     
12-15UT       0.67         1.33         2.33     
15-18UT       0.67         1.33         2.67     
18-21UT       1.00         1.67         2.67     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         2.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2023

              Aug 12  Aug 13  Aug 14
S1 or greater   15%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2023

              Aug 12        Aug 13        Aug 14
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.