:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2018 Oct 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 18-Oct 20 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 18-Oct 20 2018

            Oct 18     Oct 19     Oct 20
00-03UT        1          3          3     
03-06UT        1          3          3     
06-09UT        1          3          2     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        3          4          2     
18-21UT        3          5 (G1)     2     
21-00UT        3          4          2     

Rationale: An isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions is likely
on 19 Oct, due to CIR arrival and eventual interaction with the positive
polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2018

              Oct 18  Oct 19  Oct 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2018

              Oct 18        Oct 19        Oct 20
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.