:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2024 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 31-Nov 02 2024

             Oct 31       Nov 01       Nov 02
00-03UT       1.67         2.00         3.33     
03-06UT       1.33         2.00         2.33     
06-09UT       1.33         2.00         1.67     
09-12UT       1.33         2.33         1.67     
12-15UT       1.33         2.00         1.67     
15-18UT       1.33         2.33         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         2.33         1.67     
21-00UT       1.67         2.67         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2024

              Oct 31  Nov 01  Nov 02
S1 or greater   99%     75%     40%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
its slow decline and likely drop below the S1 (Minor) threshold on 31
Oct.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 30 2024 2053 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2024

              Oct 31        Nov 01        Nov 02
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), with a chance for R3 (Strong) levels, on 31 Oct
- 02 Nov.