:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Sep 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 19-Sep 21 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 19-Sep 21 2026

             Sep 19       Sep 20       Sep 21
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       2.67         2.00         2.00     
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.67         0.67         0.67     
15-18UT       0.67         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       0.67         1.33         1.33     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2026

              Sep 19  Sep 20  Sep 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2026

              Sep 19        Sep 20        Sep 21
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.