:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2018 Dec 11 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 11-Dec 13 2018 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 11-Dec 13 2018

            Dec 11     Dec 12     Dec 13
00-03UT        1          2          4     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        2          2          2     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        1          3          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        1          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 11-Dec 13 2018

              Dec 11  Dec 12  Dec 13
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 11-Dec 13 2018

              Dec 11        Dec 12        Dec 13
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.