:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Feb 17 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 17-Feb 19 2025 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 17-Feb 19 2025 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 00-03UT 3.00 2.67 3.00 03-06UT 3.67 4.00 2.67 06-09UT 2.67 4.33 2.33 09-12UT 2.33 3.00 2.00 12-15UT 1.33 2.33 2.00 15-18UT 2.33 2.00 2.33 18-21UT 2.67 2.33 2.33 21-00UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 17-Feb 19 2025 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 17-Feb 19 2025 Feb 17 Feb 18 Feb 19 R1-R2 45% 45% 40% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 17-19 Feb.