:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2019 Aug 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2019 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 19-Aug 21 2019

            Aug 19     Aug 20     Aug 21
00-03UT        2          2          3     
03-06UT        2          2          2     
06-09UT        1          2          2     
09-12UT        1          1          1     
12-15UT        1          1          1     
15-18UT        1          2          2     
18-21UT        1          2          2     
21-00UT        2          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2019

              Aug 19  Aug 20  Aug 21
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 19-Aug 21 2019

              Aug 19        Aug 20        Aug 21
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.