:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jul 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 09-Jul 11 2025 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 09-Jul 11 2025

             Jul 09       Jul 10       Jul 11
00-03UT       3.00         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       2.33         1.33         1.67     
06-09UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.67         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
21-00UT       1.67         1.33         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 09-Jul 11 2025

              Jul 09  Jul 10  Jul 11
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 09 2025 0425 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 09-Jul 11 2025

              Jul 09        Jul 10        Jul 11
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a further chance
for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 09-11 Jul.