:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 14-Oct 16 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 14-Oct 16 2026

             Oct 14       Oct 15       Oct 16
00-03UT       2.33         2.67         2.33     
03-06UT       3.33         3.33         2.33     
06-09UT       1.67         3.00         2.00     
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         2.00     
12-15UT       2.67         1.67         2.00     
15-18UT       3.00         1.00         2.00     
18-21UT       3.33         1.33         2.00     
21-00UT       3.67         2.33         2.00     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2026

              Oct 14  Oct 15  Oct 16
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2026

              Oct 14        Oct 15        Oct 16
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
will persist through 16 Oct primarily due to the growth and current
flare potential exhibited by AR 4551.