:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 May 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2023

             May 12       May 13       May 14
00-03UT       2.33         3.00         2.33     
03-06UT       3.67         3.67         3.00     
06-09UT       3.00         2.67         2.00     
09-12UT       2.33         2.33         2.00     
12-15UT       4.00         1.67         1.67     
15-18UT       3.67         2.33         1.67     
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     
21-00UT       5.67 (G2)    2.33         2.00     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 12
May due to CME influence.


B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2023

              May 12  May 13  May 14
S1 or greater   50%     20%     10%

Rationale: There is a decreasing chance for S1 (Minor) storms over 12-14
May.
 

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 11 2023 1829 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2023

              May 12        May 13        May 14
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely over 12-14
May with a chance for R3 or greater events.