:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2023 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2023

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
06/2144Z from Region 3513 (N19E53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec,
10 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 615 km/s at 06/2308Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1064 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 135
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 150

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05