:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2023 Dec 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate levels as Region 3513 (N19E46,
Dao/beta) produced an M2 flare at 06/2144 UTC. This region was also
responsible for several additional C-class flares. Region 3507
(N08W32, Cso/Beta) further increased the number of spots around its
periphery, but remained inactive. Region 3510 (S15W27, Dai/beta)
exhibited growth in its intermediate spots, while Region 3511 (S22W26,
Dao/beta-gamma) remained the most magnetically complex region on the
disk. Both regions were mostly inactive. Region 3514 (N09E58, Dao/Beta)
was numbered this period, but did not appear to show much activity.

An approximately 13 degree-long DSF centered near N17E37 was noted by
USAF observatories. This event can be seen in GOES-SUVI 304 Angstroms
beginning around 07/0300 UTC. A narrow CME can can be seen in NASA C2
coronagraph imagery to the NE just after 07/0300 UTC that may be
associated with this eruption. Analysis and modeling is ongoing for this
event at this time.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares on 07-09 Dec.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels on 07-09 Dec due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 07-09 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed gradually decreased from over 600 km/s to end the
period near 500 km/s as negative CH HSS influence began to subside.
Total field strength was steady near 4 nT, Bz fluctuated between +/- 3
nT, and Phi angle remained in a predominately negative orientation.

.Forecast...
CH HSS effects are expected to continue its decreasing trend on 07 Dec,
with conditions returning to near background levels by 08-09 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected, with a lingering chance for an
isolated active period, on 07 Dec as CH HSS influence persists. Mostly
quiet levels should return by 08-09 Dec as CH HSS influences dissipate.