:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2023 Dec 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 07-Dec 09 2023 is 2.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 07-Dec 09 2023

             Dec 07       Dec 08       Dec 09
00-03UT       1.33         1.67         1.33     
03-06UT       0.67         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         1.67     
09-12UT       1.00         1.33         1.67     
12-15UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       2.00         1.67         1.33     
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         1.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 07-Dec 09 2023

              Dec 07  Dec 08  Dec 09
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 06 2023 2144 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 07-Dec 09 2023

              Dec 07        Dec 08        Dec 09
R1-R2           40%           40%           40%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater blackouts all three days.